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Momentum is building globally for Bitcoin reserves, with support from policymakers in countries like Poland, Switzerland, South Africa, Hong Kong, Japan, and Venezuela. While some leaders advocate for adoption, skepticism remains, particularly in Japan where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has rejected the idea due to a lack of understanding. In Switzerland, a proposal to mandate the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin is underway, requiring 100,000 signatures by mid-2026.
UBS maintains that China remains appealing to foreign investors despite economic uncertainties, forecasting a 6% rise in the Shanghai Composite index by 2025, driven by non-financial sectors. The firm anticipates interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and government measures to stimulate the property market.Confidence among corporate executives and consumers is crucial for future spending and investment. In the property sector, buyers are cautious due to concerns over falling prices and project quality, prompting a shift in demand from primary to secondary markets.
China is taking measures to slow the depreciation of the yuan, which is under pressure from a strong dollar and US tariff threats. UBS's chief economist warns that while a weaker yuan could modestly boost exports, it may lead to competitive currency devaluations among China's rivals. The government is ramping up efforts to stabilize the currency amid concerns over capital outflows and financial instability, especially with potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration threatening trade.
China's stock market faces turmoil as retail investors, disillusioned by half-hearted government policies and U.S. trade uncertainties, rapidly sell off shares, leading to the weakest start to the year in a decade. With retail money accounting for 70% of trading, further selling could trigger a disorderly retreat, jeopardizing economic recovery efforts. Investors are now in a waiting game, anticipating more decisive policy changes amid ongoing volatility.
China is expected to implement a broad stimulus to counteract the impact of US tariffs, as the yuan faces downward pressure from a strong dollar and tariff threats. UBS Group AG's chief economist noted that while a weaker yuan could provide a slight boost to exports, it may prompt competitors to devalue their currencies, negating the benefits.
The Sensex plummeted by over 1,000 points, closing at 76,330, driven by unfavorable global cues, significant FII sell-offs, and a historic low for the rupee against the dollar. Rising Brent crude prices and concerns over inflation further dampened market sentiment ahead of the upcoming Union Budget 2025.
Iqbal Khan, Co-Head of GWM and Head of Business Asia-Pacific at UBS, emphasized growth and diversification as key priorities during the bank's "Greater China Conference" in Shanghai. He noted that the integration of Credit Suisse has strengthened UBS's position in Asia, equating to years of organic growth in Wealth Management. Khan highlighted the importance of navigating uncertainties while capitalizing on emerging opportunities, particularly in light of supportive government measures in China and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
UBS Group forecasts that mainland-listed stocks will rise by the end of 2025, driven by a projected 6% growth in corporate earnings and supportive policies from Beijing. The bank anticipates an end to China's deflationary trend, bolstered by stimulus measures and a crackdown on industrial overcapacity, which will enhance companies' pricing power and profit margins. Despite a 5% decline in the CSI 300 Index this year, UBS joins other financial institutions in predicting gains for mainland stocks, citing a shift towards looser fiscal and monetary policies.
Iqbal Khan, Asia Pacific President and Co-Head of Global Wealth Management at UBS, highlights that Asia and the US will be the main growth engines for 2025. He emphasizes the importance of investment diversification in a geopolitically charged world and notes that China's ongoing commitment to macro and fiscal stability will be crucial, alongside any trade policies from President-elect Trump. Khan spoke during the 25th UBS Greater China Conference in Shanghai.
China's December trade data revealed stronger-than-expected exports, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of potential tax increases from President-elect Trump. Meanwhile, the US consumer remains robust, supported by low unemployment and job creation, despite partisan divides on inflation perceptions.In the UK, real economic data has outperformed expectations, yet increased taxes have fostered a negative narrative among businesses. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Lane indicated a downward trend for Eurozone interest rates, predicting slower wage growth and inflation by 2025.
Chinese Yuan
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